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Trump – My correct prediction

Sunday 13 November 2016

As a value investor, it is important to observe the events of the day, to anticipate the consequences and draw the right conclusions from them, and then react consistently allocating funds accordingly.

I am pleased that I have now succeeded - according to my Brexit forecast - with the US presidential election.

On Friday 4th November 2016, in my column in the Wirtschaftsmagazine "BILANZ" under the heading "Trump makes the race"  I unequivocally predicted and justified Trumps' victory (see In that article, you will see that I already set the course for Trump in December 2015. Our two funds, "ME Fonds - Special Values" and the "ME Fonds - PERGAMON" fund, were able to profit accordingly.


As for the political landscape after the US election, I notice two things:


The choice of Trump has extensively been commented upon by the media. So I just want to add this:


With Trump, the voters have chosen not only the person but above all the hope for change. The analogy to Brexit is evident.


The arrogance with which supporters were exposed to in the campaign was hardly democratic. A little more respect for the will of the people would  have been appropriate. I feel that there has also been a view in Germany that there was an “unsportsmanlike” conduct in this campaign.


The risk of a restrictive political future cannot entirely be blamed on Trump's personality. His success will depend on whether he can succeed in getting the support from big industry in the U.S. and  that of  New York financial sector. Substantial infrastructure measures would help. And as with almost all presidents before, the integration of former Goldman Sachs employees as well. Whether we like it or not, Goldman Sachs is one of the very big "puppet masters" in America.


Otherwise, Trump will run the risk of failing the huge American armament and oil industries, as well as other influential lobbying interests. Trump's attempt to start a very desirable turn.